Some people think that the first 4 picks will be quarterbacks. They may be right. That’s because the desperation to pick a franchise quarterback with a low salary for several years allows you to spend money on other areas of your team. But how likely is that to happen. We can look back to 2016 for first round quarterbacks and the level of success.
- 2016 Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch, Jared Goff.
- 2017 Mitch Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson.
- 2018 Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Larmar Jackson, Josh Rosen.
- 2019 Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins.
- 2020 Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love.
I won’t guarantee any of the 2016 draft class will become true franchise quarterbacks. In 2017 Patrick Mahomes was a home run and Deshaun Watson can be if he overcomes his serious image and law issues. Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson are all quarterbacks with one really good season. Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow have promising futures despite Burrow’s serious knee injury.
That’s 8 of 18. Less than 50 percent. Does that mean the odds are going to get better this year? I don’t think so. Wasting a top 5 or top 10 pick on a quarterback when the odds are better for other positions is wishful thinking.
Just how important has picking a franchise quarterback become?
- From 1980-2000 the average slot for the first quarterback chosen was #14.
- From 2001-2020 the average slot for the first quarterback chosen was #2.
- 15 times a quarterback was chosen #1 and only one year, 2013 was a quarterback not chosen in the top 3 picks.
It won’t change this year, but the one thing that will change is that the right pick sets up a team for long term success and the wrong pick means a coach and GM will probably be looking for a new job in the next 2 years.